As the session of the current Kejriwal government expires on February 22, election campaign by the major political parties for the upcoming Delhi assembly elections is in full swing. The Aam Aadmi Party which is the ruling party, has hired Prashant Kishore’s Indian Political Action Committee (IPAC), to manage its election campaign. Few days back Chief Minister and AAP convener Arvind Kejriwal announced that I-PAC has come on board with the party. Delhi is set for a triangular electoral contest that will see three parties the ruling AAP, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Congress fighting it out. While both the BJP and the Congress party do not have strong contenders for the chief ministerial post, Arvind Kejriwal is looking for a third consecutive term as CM.
On Thursday, the election commission held a review meeting to review the preparedness ahead of the Delhi Assembly elections 2020. In the meeting, Delhi CEO, Ranbir Singh gave the status with regard to the electoral rolls, manpower availability, EVMs & VVPATs and training of all the election officials. Ways to increase the number of voter turnouts in the Delhi Assembly polls were also discussed in the meeting.
BJP banking on Prime Minister Narendra Modi's election-winning formula
The Bharatiya Janata Party is banking on Prime Minister Narendra Modi's election-winning formula to take Delhi. PM Modi kicked off the BJP’s campaign at the Ramlila Maidan on Sunday, where he focused both on national and local issues. The BJP would want a repeat of its 2019 lok sabha election performance, in Delhi, where it won all 7 parliamentary seats with massive margins. However, after the party’s poor performance in Maharashtra, Haryana and just concluded Jharkhand assembly election, this seems an uphill task.
Since December 2017 Gujarat assembly election, BJP has faced anti-incumbency in almost all the State polls. Delhi is the only state in North India where the BJP has not won the Assembly elections for the last 21 years.
Another bigger challenge for the saffron party in Delhi is factionalism. Several MPs are reportedly not very comfortable working under the leadership of Manoj Tiwari. Tiwari, who successfully led the party in MCD and Lok Sabha election, Union Minister and Chandni Chowk MP Dr Harsh Vardhan, West Delhi MP Parvesh Verma, East Delhi MP Gautam Gambhir, and Rajya Sabha MP Vijay Goel are the probable candidates for the BJP's Delhi face.
Congress has become weak after the demise of Sheila dikshit
While for the Congress party, a vacuum in Delhi Congress has been created after the demise of the former CM Sheila dikshit. So far, the Congress too has not fielded any candidate against Kejriwal. The possible contenders from the Congress party, for the CM post include former Delhi Pradesh Congress chiefs, Ajay Maken and Arvinder Singh Lovely apart from Subhash Chopra, the present chief.
The Congress party is fighting a prestige battle in the city, it ruled for 15 years. However, the party’s higher vote share in 2019 should worry AAP, a party that decimated it in the 2015 Delhi elections by winning 67 out of the 70 seats.
‘Modi for PM, Kejriwal for CM’
At present, the AAP's vote share is 18.1%, according the results of the 2019 polls - down from 33.1% in 2014 Lok Sabha polls. However, the Delhi voter also maxes out an old proverb about voting differently for assembly and Parliament: ‘Modi for PM, Kejriwal for CM’, is what defines politics in national capital. Arvind Kejriwal has very well understood the mindset of Delhi voters, he knows what the residents want, and as such all the freebies, policies and schemes announced by him make mass appeal which ultimately turn voters in his favor. Moreover, beyond things like bijli, paani, school and clinic, Kejriwal has also adopted ‘Hindutva’ approach.
In order to target the voters, the CM has made everything free including the pilgrimages. The Aam Aadmi Party, enjoys a disproportionate support base specially among the poor and marginalised class, auto and taxi drivers, middle class and the slum clusters. The party has successfully limited its entire political messaging and advertisement to its policy successes in health and education sector.
This strategy has turned voters in its favor as it reminds the core voters of the party’s achievements. Taking into account, the current political scenario in the national capital, one would rightly say that AAP is at an advantage over the other two grand old parties i..e BJP and Congress.
Local issues and party manifesto
In order to win elections, a party’s manifesto should appeal to a greater number of people. Past precedents show that in Delhi, elections are fought on issues. Pollution, clean water, full statehood for Delhi and women safety are few issues which all political parties are likely to raise ahead of upcoming Delhi assembly elections.
The manifesto of the AAP for the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, was also based on full statehood for Delhi. Similarly, demand for full statehood had also been a poll promise for BJP and Congress. Moreover, the impact of last minute sops to voters by caliberation of electricity bills and their cancellation are yet to be seen specially because the credit war between BJP and AAP for residents of unauthorised colonies continues.
Role of caste and community
Caste and religion would be major factors in the selection of candidates for the coming election. Punjabis and the Baniyas are the two dominant castes in Delhi that constitute nearly 50 per cent of total votes. In December 2018, AAP had accused the BJP of knocking 50 per cent of Delhi’s Baniya voters off the electoral rolls ahead of the 2019 Lok Sabha elections.
In 2015 assembly elections, BJP fielded nine while seven of the AAP’s 70 assembly candidates were from Baniya community. BJP is often considered as a party of upper caste, however the party is believed to have lost support of the trading community in the wake of demonetisation and GST.
This time, the BJP is focusing on a dozen reserved Assembly constituencies in the city to strengthen its chances of returning to power in the national capital. The Scheduled Caste Morcha of the Delhi BJP has been holding public meetings with individual SC’s, since November, to penetrate among voters in view of the Assembly polls due early next year.
After the Punjabi and Baniya community, the poorvanchali voters will play an important role in Delhi elections. Of the 70 assembly constituencies in Delhi, there are at least 10 constituencies where this community plays a decisive role. Vikaspuri, Laxmi Nagar, Sangam Vihar, Kirari, Burari, Badli, Patparganj, Dwarka, Palam and Karawal Nagar constituencies have a large population of poorvanchali voters.
Considered to be a sizable vote bank, these voters are people hailing from the contiguous region of eastern Uttar Pradesh and western Bihar. They make up nearly a third of Delhi’s 20 million population. In 2015, over a dozen members of the legislative assembly were from Purvanchal.
This is also the reason why the BJP has Manoj Tiwari, a Bhojpuri singer-turned-politician, as its Delhi unit president. All political parties are leaving no stone unturned to influence voters of the dominant caste/community and caste will be an important factor in ticket distribution for the upcoming Delhi assembly elections.
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